Genetic risk impacts the association of menopausal hormone therapy with colorectal cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT), a common treatment to relieve symptoms of menopause, is associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). To inform CRC risk prediction and MHT risk-benefit assessment, we aimed to evaluate the joint association of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for CRC and MHT on CRC risk. METHODS: We used data from 28,486 postmenopausal women (11,519 cases and 16,967 controls) of European descent. A PRS based on 141 CRC-associated genetic variants was modeled as a categorical variable in quartiles. Multiplicative interaction between PRS and MHT use was evaluated using logistic regression. Additive interaction was measured using the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). 30-year cumulative risks of CRC for 50-year-old women according to MHT use and PRS were calculated. RESULTS: The reduction in odds ratios by MHT use was larger in women within the highest quartile of PRS compared to that in women within the lowest quartile of PRS (p-value = 2.7 × 10-8). At the highest quartile of PRS, the 30-year CRC risk was statistically significantly lower for women taking any MHT than for women not taking any MHT, 3.7% (3.3%-4.0%) vs 6.1% (5.7%-6.5%) (difference 2.4%, P-value = 1.83 × 10-14); these differences were also statistically significant but smaller in magnitude in the lowest PRS quartile, 1.6% (1.4%-1.8%) vs 2.2% (1.9%-2.4%) (difference 0.6%, P-value = 1.01 × 10-3), indicating 4 times greater reduction in absolute risk associated with any MHT use in the highest compared to the lowest quartile of genetic CRC risk. CONCLUSIONS: MHT use has a greater impact on the reduction of CRC risk for women at higher genetic risk. These findings have implications for the development of risk prediction models for CRC and potentially for the consideration of genetic information in the risk-benefit assessment of MHT use.

SIGHR: Side information guided high-dimensional regression.

In this work, we develop a novel Bayesian regression framework that can be used to complete variable selection in high dimensional settings. Unlike existing techniques, the proposed approach can leverage side information to inform about the sparsity structure of the regression coefficients. This is accomplished by replacing the usual inclusion probability in the spike and slab prior with a binary regression model which assimilates this extra source of information. To facilitate model fitting, a computationally efficient and easy to implement Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior sampling algorithm is developed via carefully chosen priors and data augmentation steps. The finite sample performance of our methodology is assessed through numerical simulations, and we further illustrate our approach by using it to identify genetic markers associated with the nicotine metabolite ratio; a key biological marker associated with nicotine dependence and smoking cessation treatment.

Genome-wide interaction analysis of folate for colorectal cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological and experimental evidence suggests that higher folate intake is associated with decreased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk; however, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not fully understood. Genetic variation that may have a direct or indirect impact on folate metabolism can provide insights into folate's role in CRC. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to perform a genome-wide interaction analysis to identify genetic variants that may modify the association of folate on CRC risk. METHODS: We applied traditional case-control logistic regression, joint 3-degree of freedom, and a 2-step weighted hypothesis approach to test the interactions of common variants (allele frequency >1%) across the genome and dietary folate, folic acid supplement use, and total folate in relation to risk of CRC in 30,550 cases and 42,336 controls from 51 studies from 3 genetic consortia (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO). RESULTS: Inverse associations of dietary, total folate, and folic acid supplement with CRC were found (odds ratio [OR]: 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.90, 0.96; and 0.91; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.94 per quartile higher intake, and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.88) for users compared with nonusers, respectively). Interactions (P-interaction < 5×10-8) of folic acid supplement and variants in the 3p25.2 locus (in the region of Synapsin II [SYN2]/tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 4 [TIMP4]) were found using traditional interaction analysis, with variant rs150924902 (located upstream to SYN2) showing the strongest interaction. In stratified analyses by rs150924902 genotypes, folate supplementation was associated with decreased CRC risk among those carrying the TT genotype (OR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.86) but increased CRC risk among those carrying the TA genotype (OR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.29, 2.05), suggesting a qualitative interaction (P-interaction = 1.4×10-8). No interactions were observed for dietary and total folate. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in 3p25.2 locus may modify the association of folate supplement with CRC risk. Experimental studies and studies incorporating other relevant omics data are warranted to validate this finding.

Changing Colorectal Cancer Trends in Asians: Epidemiology and Risk Factors.

Once an infrequent disease in parts of Asia, the rate of colorectal cancer in recent decades appears to be steadily increasing. Colorectal cancer represents one of the most important causes of cancer mortality worldwide, including in many regions in Asia. Rapid changes in socioeconomic and lifestyle habits have been attributed to the notable increase in the incidence of colorectal cancers in many Asian countries. Through published data from the International Agency for Cancer Research (IARC), we utilized available continuous data to determine which Asian nations had a rise in colorectal cancer rates. We found that East and South East Asian countries had a significant rise in colorectal cancer rates. Subsequently, we summarized here the known genetics and environmental risk factors for colorectal cancer among populations in this region as well as approaches to screening and early detection that have been considered across various countries in the region.

Probing the diabetes and colorectal cancer relationship using gene - environment interaction analyses.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship still require investigation and it is not known if the association is modified by genetic variants. To address these questions, we undertook a genome-wide gene-environment interaction analysis. METHODS: We used data from 3 genetic consortia (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO; 31,318 colorectal cancer cases/41,499 controls) and undertook genome-wide gene-environment interaction analyses with colorectal cancer risk, including interaction tests of genetics(G)xdiabetes (1-degree of freedom; d.f.) and joint testing of Gxdiabetes, G-colorectal cancer association (2-d.f. joint test) and G-diabetes correlation (3-d.f. joint test). RESULTS: Based on the joint tests, we found that the association of diabetes with colorectal cancer risk is modified by loci on chromosomes 8q24.11 (rs3802177, SLC30A8 - ORAA: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.34-1.96; ORAG: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.30-1.54; ORGG: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.13-1.31; p-value3-d.f.: 5.46 × 10-11) and 13q14.13 (rs9526201, LRCH1 - ORGG: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.56-2.83; ORGA: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.38-1.68; ORAA: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.06-1.21; p-value2-d.f.: 7.84 × 10-09). DISCUSSION: These results suggest that variation in genes related to insulin signaling (SLC30A8) and immune function (LRCH1) may modify the association of diabetes with colorectal cancer risk and provide novel insights into the biology underlying the diabetes and colorectal cancer relationship.

A Genetic Locus within the FMN1/GREM1 Gene Region Interacts with Body Mass Index in Colorectal Cancer Risk.

Colorectal cancer risk can be impacted by genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors, including diet and obesity. Gene-environment interactions (G × E) can provide biological insights into the effects of obesity on colorectal cancer risk. Here, we assessed potential genome-wide G × E interactions between body mass index (BMI) and common SNPs for colorectal cancer risk using data from 36,415 colorectal cancer cases and 48,451 controls from three international colorectal cancer consortia (CCFR, CORECT, and GECCO). The G × E tests included the conventional logistic regression using multiplicative terms (one degree of freedom, 1DF test), the two-step EDGE method, and the joint 3DF test, each of which is powerful for detecting G × E interactions under specific conditions. BMI was associated with higher colorectal cancer risk. The two-step approach revealed a statistically significant G×BMI interaction located within the Formin 1/Gremlin 1 (FMN1/GREM1) gene region (rs58349661). This SNP was also identified by the 3DF test, with a suggestive statistical significance in the 1DF test. Among participants with the CC genotype of rs58349661, overweight and obesity categories were associated with higher colorectal cancer risk, whereas null associations were observed across BMI categories in those with the TT genotype. Using data from three large international consortia, this study discovered a locus in the FMN1/GREM1 gene region that interacts with BMI on the association with colorectal cancer risk. Further studies should examine the potential mechanisms through which this locus modifies the etiologic link between obesity and colorectal cancer. SIGNIFICANCE: This gene-environment interaction analysis revealed a genetic locus in FMN1/GREM1 that interacts with body mass index in colorectal cancer risk, suggesting potential implications for precision prevention strategies.

Genome-wide Interaction Study with Smoking for Colorectal Cancer Risk Identifies Novel Genetic Loci Related to Tumor Suppression, Inflammation, and Immune Response.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer. However, genetically defined population subgroups may have increased susceptibility to smoking-related effects on colorectal cancer. METHODS: A genome-wide interaction scan was performed including 33,756 colorectal cancer cases and 44,346 controls from three genetic consortia. RESULTS: Evidence of an interaction was observed between smoking status (ever vs. never smokers) and a locus on 3p12.1 (rs9880919, P = 4.58 × 10-8), with higher associated risk in subjects carrying the GG genotype [OR, 1.25; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.20-1.30] compared with the other genotypes (OR <1.17 for GA and AA). Among ever smokers, we observed interactions between smoking intensity (increase in 10 cigarettes smoked per day) and two loci on 6p21.33 (rs4151657, P = 1.72 × 10-8) and 8q24.23 (rs7005722, P = 2.88 × 10-8). Subjects carrying the rs4151657 TT genotype showed higher risk (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09-1.16) compared with the other genotypes (OR <1.06 for TC and CC). Similarly, higher risk was observed among subjects carrying the rs7005722 AA genotype (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.28) compared with the other genotypes (OR <1.13 for AC and CC). Functional annotation revealed that SNPs in 3p12.1 and 6p21.33 loci were located in regulatory regions, and were associated with expression levels of nearby genes. Genetic models predicting gene expression revealed that smoking parameters were associated with lower colorectal cancer risk with higher expression levels of CADM2 (3p12.1) and ATF6B (6p21.33). CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified novel genetic loci that may modulate the risk for colorectal cancer of smoking status and intensity, linked to tumor suppression and immune response. IMPACT: These findings can guide potential prevention treatments.

Patterns of drinking behavior around a treatment episode for alcohol use disorder: Predictions from pre-treatment measures.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use disorder (AUD) has been described as a chronic disease given the high rates that affected individuals have in returning to drinking after a change attempt. Many studies have characterized predictors of aggregated alcohol use (e.g., percent heavy drinking days) following treatment for AUD. However, to inform future research on predicting drinking as an AUD outcome measure, a better understanding is needed of the patterns of drinking that surround a treatment episode and which clinical measures predict patterns of drinking. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Project MATCH and COMBINE studies (MATCH: n = 1726; 24.3% female, 20.0% non-White; COMBINE: n = 1383; 30.9% female, 23.2% non-White). Daily drinking was measured in the 90 days prior to treatment, 90 days (MATCH) and 120 days (COMBINE) during treatment, and 365 days following treatment. Gradient boosting machine learning methods were used to explore baseline predictors of drinking patterns. RESULTS: Drinking patterns during a prior time period were the most consistent predictors of future drinking patterns. Social network drinking, AUD severity, mental health symptoms, and constructs based on the addiction cycle (incentive salience, negative emotionality, and executive function) were associated with patterns of drinking prior to treatment. Addiction cycle constructs, AUD severity, purpose in life, social network, legal history, craving, and motivation were associated with drinking during the treatment period and following treatment. CONCLUSIONS: There is heterogeneity in drinking patterns around an AUD treatment episode. This study provides novel information about variables that may be important to measure to improve the prediction of drinking patterns during and following treatment. Future research should consider which patterns of drinking they aim to predict and which period of drinking is most important to predict. The current findings could guide the selection of predictor variables and generate hypotheses for those predictors.

Predicting nicotine metabolism across ancestries using genotypes.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to match characteristics of tobacco users with cessation treatments and risks of tobacco attributable diseases such as lung cancer. The rate in which the body metabolizes nicotine has proven an important predictor of these outcomes. Nicotine metabolism is primarily catalyzed by the enzyme cytochrone P450 (CYP2A6) and CYP2A6 activity can be measured as the ratio of two nicotine metabolites: trans-3'-hydroxycotinine to cotinine (NMR). Measurements of these metabolites are only possible in current tobacco users and vary by biofluid source, timing of collection, and protocols; unfortunately, this has limited their use in clinical practice. The NMR depends highly on genetic variation near CYP2A6 on chromosome 19 as well as ancestry, environmental, and other genetic factors. Thus, we aimed to develop prediction models of nicotine metabolism using genotypes and basic individual characteristics (age, gender, height, and weight). RESULTS: We identified four multiethnic studies with nicotine metabolites and DNA samples. We constructed a 263 marker panel from filtering genome-wide association scans of the NMR in each study. We then applied seven machine learning techniques to train models of nicotine metabolism on the largest and most ancestrally diverse dataset (N=2239). The models were then validated using the other three studies (total N=1415). Using cross-validation, we found the correlations between the observed and predicted NMR ranged from 0.69 to 0.97 depending on the model. When predictions were averaged in an ensemble model, the correlation was 0.81. The ensemble model generalizes well in the validation studies across ancestries, despite differences in the measurements of NMR between studies, with correlations of: 0.52 for African ancestry, 0.61 for Asian ancestry, and 0.46 for European ancestry. The most influential predictors of NMR identified in more than two models were rs56113850, rs11878604, and 21 other genetic variants near CYP2A6 as well as age and ancestry. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed an ensemble of seven models for predicting the NMR across ancestries from genotypes and age, gender and BMI. These models were validated using three datasets and associate with nicotine dosages. The knowledge of how an individual metabolizes nicotine could be used to help select the optimal path to reducing or quitting tobacco use, as well as, evaluating risks of tobacco use.

Genome-Wide Interaction Analysis of Genetic Variants With Menopausal Hormone Therapy for Colorectal Cancer Risk.

BACKGROUND: The use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) may interact with genetic variants to influence colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide, gene-environment interaction between single nucleotide polymorphisms and the use of any MHT, estrogen only, and combined estrogen-progestogen therapy with CRC risk, among 28 486 postmenopausal women (11 519 CRC patients and 16 967 participants without CRC) from 38 studies, using logistic regression, 2-step method, and 2- or 3-degree-of-freedom joint test. A set-based score test was applied for rare genetic variants. RESULTS: The use of any MHT, estrogen only and estrogen-progestogen were associated with a reduced CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64 to 0.78; OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.53 to 0.79; and OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.90, respectively). The 2-step method identified a statistically significant interaction between a GRIN2B variant rs117868593 and MHT use, whereby MHT-associated CRC risk was statistically significantly reduced in women with the GG genotype (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.64 to 0.72) but not within strata of GC or CC genotypes. A statistically significant interaction between a DCBLD1 intronic variant at 6q22.1 (rs10782186) and MHT use was identified by the 2-degree-of-freedom joint test. The MHT-associated CRC risk was reduced with increasing number of rs10782186-C alleles, showing odds ratios of 0.78 (95% CI = 0.70 to 0.87) for TT, 0.68 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.73) for TC, and 0.66 (95% CI = 0.60 to 0.74) for CC genotypes. In addition, 5 genes in rare variant analysis showed suggestive interactions with MHT (2-sided P < 1.2 × 10-4). CONCLUSION: Genetic variants that modify the association between MHT and CRC risk were identified, offering new insights into pathways of CRC carcinogenesis and potential mechanisms involved.

Assessing Opioid Use Disorder Treatments in Trials Subject to Non-Adherence via a Functional Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Model.

The opioid crisis in the United States poses a major threat to public health due to psychiatric and infectious disease comorbidities and death due to opioid use disorder (OUD). OUD is characterized by patterns of opioid misuse leading to persistent heavy use and overdose. The standard of care for treatment of OUD is medication-assisted treatment, in combination with behavioral therapy. Medications for opioid use disorder have been shown to improve OUD outcomes, including reduction and prevention of overdose. However, understanding the effectiveness of such medications has been limited due to non-adherence to assigned dose levels by study patients. To overcome this challenge, herein we develop a model that views dose history as a time-varying covariate. Proceeding in this fashion allows the model to estimate dose effect while accounting for lapses in adherence. The proposed model is used to conduct a secondary analysis of data collected from six efficacy and safety trials of buprenorphine maintenance treatment. This analysis provides further insight into the time-dependent treatment effects of buprenorphine and how different dose adherence patterns relate to risk of opioid use.

Effects of Buprenorphine Dose and Therapeutic Engagement on Illicit Opiate Use in Opioid Use Disorder Treatment Trials.

The impact of agonist dose and of physician, staff and patient engagement on treatment have not been evaluated together in an analysis of treatment for opioid use disorder. Our hypotheses were that greater agonist dose and therapeutic engagement would be associated with reduced illicit opiate use in a time-dependent manner. Publicly-available treatment data from six buprenorphine efficacy and safety trials from the Federally-supported Clinical Trials Network were used to derive treatment variables. Three novel predictors were constructed to capture the time weighted effects of buprenorphine dosage (mg buprenorphine per day), dosing protocol (whether physician could adjust dose), and clinic visits (whether patient attended clinic). We used time-in-trial as a predictor to account for the therapeutic benefits of treatment persistence. The outcome was illicit opiate use defined by self-report or urinalysis. Trial participants (N = 3022 patients with opioid dependence, mean age 36 years, 33% female, 14% Black, 16% Hispanic) were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model. Treatment variables dose, Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.63 (95% Confidence Interval (95%CI) 0.59−0.67), dosing protocol, OR = 0.70 (95%CI 0.65−0.76), time-in-trial, OR = 0.75 (95%CI 0.71−0.80) and clinic visits, OR = 0.81 (95%CI 0.76−0.87) were significant (p-values < 0.001) protective factors. Treatment implications support higher doses of buprenorphine and greater engagement of patients with providers and clinic staff.

Beyond GWAS of Colorectal Cancer: Evidence of Interaction with Alcohol Consumption and Putative Causal Variant for the 10q24.2 Region.

BACKGROUND: Currently known associations between common genetic variants and colorectal cancer explain less than half of its heritability of 25%. As alcohol consumption has a J-shape association with colorectal cancer risk, nondrinking and heavy drinking are both risk factors for colorectal cancer. METHODS: Individual-level data was pooled from the Colon Cancer Family Registry, Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study, and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium to compare nondrinkers (≤1 g/day) and heavy drinkers (>28 g/day) with light-to-moderate drinkers (1-28 g/day) in GxE analyses. To improve power, we implemented joint 2df and 3df tests and a novel two-step method that modifies the weighted hypothesis testing framework. We prioritized putative causal variants by predicting allelic effects using support vector machine models. RESULTS: For nondrinking as compared with light-to-moderate drinking, the hybrid two-step approach identified 13 significant SNPs with pairwise r2 > 0.9 in the 10q24.2/COX15 region. When stratified by alcohol intake, the A allele of lead SNP rs2300985 has a dose-response increase in risk of colorectal cancer as compared with the G allele in light-to-moderate drinkers [OR for GA genotype = 1.11; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-1.17; OR for AA genotype = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14-1.31], but not in nondrinkers or heavy drinkers. Among the correlated candidate SNPs in the 10q24.2/COX15 region, rs1318920 was predicted to disrupt an HNF4 transcription factor binding motif. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that the association with colorectal cancer in 10q24.2/COX15 observed in genome-wide association study is strongest in nondrinkers. We also identified rs1318920 as the putative causal regulatory variant for the region. IMPACT: The study identifies multifaceted evidence of a possible functional effect for rs1318920.

A Bayesian mixed effects support vector machine for learning and predicting daily substance use disorder patterns.

Background: Substance use disorder (SUD) is a heterogeneous disorder. Adapting machine learning algorithms to allow for the parsing of intrapersonal and interpersonal heterogeneity in meaningful ways may accelerate the discovery and implementation of clinically actionable interventions in SUD research.Objectives: Inspired by a study of heavy drinkers that collected daily drinking and substance use (ABQ DrinQ), we develop tools to estimate subject-specific risk trajectories of heavy drinking; estimate and perform inference on patient characteristics and time-varying covariates; and present results in easy-to-use Jupyter notebooks. Methods: We recast support vector machines (SVMs) into a Bayesian model extended to handle mixed effects. We then apply these methods to ABQ DrinQ to model alcohol use patterns. ABQ DrinQ consists of 190 heavy drinkers (44% female) with 109,580 daily observations. Results: We identified male gender (point estimate; 95% credible interval: -0.25;-0.29,-0.21), older age (-0.03;-0.03,-0.03), and time varying usage of nicotine (1.68;1.62,1.73), cannabis (0.05;0.03,0.07), and other drugs (1.16;1.01,1.35) as statistically significant factors of heavy drinking behavior. By adopting random effects to capture the subject-specific longitudinal trajectories, the algorithm outperforms traditional SVM (classifies 84% of heavy drinking days correctly versus 73%). Conclusions: We developed a mixed effects variant of SVM and compare it to the traditional formulation, with an eye toward elucidating the importance of incorporating random effects to account for underlying heterogeneity in SUD data. These tools and examples are packaged into a repository for researchers to explore. Understanding patterns and risk of substance use could be used for developing individualized interventions.

A genetic association study of tobacco withdrawal endophenotypes in African Americans.

Genome-wide association (GWA) genetic epidemiology research has identified several variants modestly associated with brief self-report smoking measures, predominately in European Americans. GWA research has not applied intensive laboratory-based measures of smoking endophenotypes in African Americans-a population with disproportionately low quit smoking rates and high tobacco-related disease risk. This genetic epidemiology study of non-Hispanic African Americans tested associations of 89 genetic variants identified in previous GWA research and exploratory GWAs with 24 laboratory-derived tobacco withdrawal endophenotypes. African American cigarette smokers (N = 528; ≥10 cig/day; 36.2% female) completed two counterbalanced visits following either 16-hr of tobacco deprivation or ad libitum smoking. At both visits, self-report and behavioral measures across six unique "sub-phenotype" domains within the tobacco withdrawal syndrome were assessed (Urge/Craving, Negative Affect, Low Positive Affect, Cognition, Hunger, and Motivation to Resume Smoking). Results of the candidate variant analysis found two significant small-magnitude associations. The rs11915747 alternate allele in the CAD2M gene region was associated with .09 larger deprivation-induced changes in reported impulsivity (0-4 scale). The rs2471711alternate allele in the AC097480.1/AC097480.2 gene region was associated with 0.26 lower deprivation-induced changes in confusion (0-4 scale). For both variants, associations were opposite in direction to previous research. Individual genetic variants may exert only weak influences on tobacco withdrawal in African Americans. Larger sample sizes of non-European ancestry individuals might be needed to investigate both known and novel loci that may be ancestry-specific. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Multiethnic Prediction of Nicotine Biomarkers and Association With Nicotine Dependence.

INTRODUCTION: The nicotine metabolite ratio and nicotine equivalents are measures of metabolism rate and intake. Genome-wide prediction of these nicotine biomarkers in multiethnic samples will enable tobacco-related biomarker, behavioral, and exposure research in studies without measured biomarkers. AIMS AND METHODS: We screened genetic variants genome-wide using marginal scans and applied statistical learning algorithms on top-ranked genetic variants, age, ethnicity and sex, and, in additional modeling, cigarettes per day (CPD), (in additional modeling) to build prediction models for the urinary nicotine metabolite ratio (uNMR) and creatinine-standardized total nicotine equivalents (TNE) in 2239 current cigarette smokers in five ethnic groups. We predicted these nicotine biomarkers using model ensembles and evaluated external validity using dependence measures in 1864 treatment-seeking smokers in two ethnic groups. RESULTS: The genomic regions with the most selected and included variants for measured biomarkers were chr19q13.2 (uNMR, without and with CPD) and chr15q25.1 and chr10q25.3 (TNE, without and with CPD). We observed ensemble correlations between measured and predicted biomarker values for the uNMR and TNE without (with CPD) of 0.67 (0.68) and 0.65 (0.72) in the training sample. We observed inconsistency in penalized regression models of TNE (with CPD) with fewer variants at chr15q25.1 selected and included. In treatment-seeking smokers, predicted uNMR (without CPD) was significantly associated with CPD and predicted TNE (without CPD) with CPD, time-to-first-cigarette, and Fagerström total score. CONCLUSIONS: Nicotine metabolites, genome-wide data, and statistical learning approaches developed novel robust predictive models for urinary nicotine biomarkers in multiple ethnic groups. Predicted biomarker associations helped define genetically influenced components of nicotine dependence. IMPLICATIONS: We demonstrate development of robust models and multiethnic prediction of the uNMR and TNE using statistical and machine learning approaches. Variants included in trained models for nicotine biomarkers include top-ranked variants in multiethnic genome-wide studies of smoking behavior, nicotine metabolites, and related disease. Association of the two predicted nicotine biomarkers with Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence items supports models of nicotine biomarkers as predictors of physical dependence and nicotine exposure. Predicted nicotine biomarkers may facilitate tobacco-related disease and treatment research in samples with genomic data and limited nicotine metabolite or tobacco exposure data.

Genetic risk factors for colorectal cancer in multiethnic Indonesians.

Colorectal cancer is a common cancer in Indonesia, yet it has been understudied in this resource-constrained setting. We conducted a genome-wide association study focused on evaluation and preliminary discovery of colorectal cancer risk factors in Indonesians. We administered detailed questionnaires and collecting blood samples from 162 colorectal cancer cases throughout Makassar, Indonesia. We also established a control set of 193 healthy individuals frequency matched by age, sex, and ethnicity. A genome-wide association analysis was performed on 84 cases and 89 controls passing quality control. We evaluated known colorectal cancer genetic variants using logistic regression and established a genome-wide polygenic risk model using a Bayesian variable selection technique. We replicate associations for rs9497673, rs6936461 and rs7758229 on chromosome 6; rs11255841 on chromosome 10; and rs4779584, rs11632715, and rs73376930 on chromosome 15. Polygenic modeling identified 10 SNP associated with colorectal cancer risk. This work helps characterize the relationship between variants in the SCL22A3, SCG5, GREM1, and STXBP5-AS1 genes and colorectal cancer in a diverse Indonesian population. With further biobanking and international research collaborations, variants specific to colorectal cancer risk in Indonesians will be identified.

Bayesian Pathway Analysis for Complex Interactions.

Modern epidemiologic studies permit investigation of the complex pathways that mediate effects of social, behavioral, and molecular factors on health outcomes. Conventional analytical approaches struggle with high-dimensional data, leading to high likelihoods of both false-positive and false-negative inferences. Herein, we describe a novel Bayesian pathway analysis approach, the algorithm for learning pathway structure (ALPS), which addresses key limitations in existing approaches to complex data analysis. ALPS uses prior information about pathways in concert with empirical data to identify and quantify complex interactions within networks of factors that mediate an association between an exposure and an outcome. We illustrate ALPS through application to a complex gene-drug interaction analysis in the Predictors of Breast Cancer Recurrence (ProBe CaRe) Study, a Danish cohort study of premenopausal breast cancer patients (2002-2011), for which conventional analyses severely limit the quality of inference.

Metabolic Pathway Analysis and Effectiveness of Tamoxifen in Danish Breast Cancer Patients.

BACKGROUND: Tamoxifen and its metabolites compete with estrogen to occupy the estrogen receptor. The conventional dose of adjuvant tamoxifen overwhelms estrogen in this competition, reducing breast cancer recurrence risk by nearly half. Phase I metabolism generates active tamoxifen metabolites, and phase II metabolism deactivates them. No earlier pharmacogenetic study has comprehensively evaluated the metabolism and transport pathways, and no earlier study has included a large population of premenopausal women. METHODS: We completed a cohort study of 5,959 Danish nonmetastatic premenopausal breast cancer patients, in whom 938 recurrences occurred, and a case-control study of 541 recurrent cases in a cohort of Danish predominantly postmenopausal breast cancer patients, all followed for 10 years. We collected formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor blocks and genotyped 32 variants in 15 genes involved in tamoxifen metabolism or transport. We estimated conventional associations for each variant and used prior information about the tamoxifen metabolic path to evaluate the importance of metabolic and transporter pathways. RESULTS: No individual variant was notably associated with risk of recurrence in either study population. Both studies showed weak evidence of the importance of phase I metabolism in the clinical response to adjuvant tamoxifen therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with prior knowledge, our results support the role of phase I metabolic capacity in clinical response to tamoxifen. Nonetheless, no individual variant substantially explained the modest phase I effect on tamoxifen response. IMPACT: These results are consistent with guidelines recommending against genotype-guided prescribing of tamoxifen, and for the first time provide evidence supporting these guidelines in premenopausal women.

Development of an Institutional Opioid Prescriber Education Program and Opioid-Prescribing Guidelines: Impact on Prescribing Practices.

BACKGROUND: Our institution developed a 1-hour mandatory narcotics-prescribing education program as well as postoperative opioid-prescribing guidelines in response to the opioid epidemic. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of this hospital-wide opioid education and subsequent institution of postoperative opioid guidelines on opioid-prescribing practices after ambulatory surgery. METHODS: This retrospective study was performed at 1 academic orthopaedic hospital. In November 2016, a 1-hour mandatory opioid education program was completed by all hospital prescribers. Postoperative opioid guidelines were then developed and were disseminated in February 2017. All postoperative narcotic prescriptions after ambulatory procedures performed by 3 separate services (hand, sports, and foot and ankle services) were evaluated over 4 months prior to and after the mandatory opioid education and subsequent release of service-specific guidelines. RESULTS: Overall, there was a significant decrease in pills and total oral morphine equivalents prescribed after dissemination of guidelines compared with the pre-intervention cohort procedures (p < 0.001) performed by the sports and hand services. With regard to the sports medicine service, the mean difference in pills prescribed was 6.47 pills (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.4 to 7.5 pills) for knee arthroscopy, 5.6 pills (95% CI, 2.5 to 8.7 pills) for shoulder arthroscopy, and 16.3 pills (95% CI, 13.6 to 19.1 pills) for hip arthroscopy. With regard to the hand service, the mean difference in pills prescribed was 13.0 pills (95% CI, 10.2 to 15.8 pills) for level-1 procedures, 12.4 pills (95% CI, 9.9 to 15.0 pills) for carpal tunnel release, and 21.7 pills (95% CI, 18.0 to 25.3 pills) for distal radial fractures. The decrease in pills prescribed in the post-intervention cohort amounts to almost 30,000 fewer opioid pills prescribed per year after these 6 procedures alone. There was no significant change (p > 0.05) in either the number of pills or the oral morphine equivalents prescribed after any of the 3 procedures performed by the foot and ankle service (ankle arthroscopy, bunion surgery, and Achilles tendon repair). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a prescriber education program and followed up with consensus-based guidelines for postoperative opioid prescriptions. These interventions caused a significant decrease in excessive opioid-prescribing practices after ambulatory orthopaedic surgery at our hospital. We urge initiatives by national orthopaedic organizations to develop and promote education programs and procedure and disease-specific opioid-prescribing guidelines.